Jennifer Palumbo 3-9-01

Population Growth

Survivor: Season Two- Year 2001

It is down to the final episodes of the hit prime-time show Survivor that began two months ago with sixteen individuals and network employees on an uninhabited island in the South Pacific. There are now three castaways left on the island with a crew of four following and taping every move of the remaining few (this gives a total of seven people on the island, three male and four female). Suddenly, the group finds itself in the middle of a terrible monsoon that batters the island for a full week cutting off any contact with the outside world.

Special Bulletin from CBS News

“Due to unfortunate weather conditions that have caused the network to lose contact with the remaining castaways and camera men on the island, this season of Survivor will be terminated. We are assuming all seven of the remaining individuals who were left on the island have been killed and deeply mourn their loss. The show will attempt a third season beginning next year after the Superbowl. Our deepest sympathizes and apologies go out to the families of those presumed dead. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.”

An Uninhabited Island in the South Pacific

After braving the horrible and devastating monsoon for a full week, the sun again rises over the island, finding all seven individuals who were there before the monsoon still alive. They have lost all radio and phone contact with the outside world where it is assumed they are all dead. Confronted with the horrifying reality that they have to find a way to survive until they either die or are discovered, the remaining seven begin to establish dwellings and seek food and water sources. The island has an abundance of wild game and pigs along with plentiful streams and the Pacific Ocean surrounding it. There is also a natural spring which provides pure drinking water for the survivors along with wildly growing vegetables, fruits, and nuts. The individuals develop a way of living that perpetuates their lives for hundreds of years.

Three Hundred and Fifteen Years Later- Year 2316

CBS Special News Bulletin

“A sailing vessel made a fascinating and unexpected discovery today while sailing through the South Pacific on the way to Tahiti. The sailors found an island with thousands of people living on it who have been cut off from contact with the outside world for the last 315 years. Once the individuals were brought back to the mainland United States, it was discovered that the group had originated from seven people left there in the year 2001. At that time, there was a television show on this station called Survivor that put individuals on an island and had them compete against each other to see who could make it the longest under extremely brutal conditions. A monsoon overtook the island during the taping of the show and the individuals were presumed dead. It is now known that all seven people on the island survived the event and lived, creating this group of people that numbers over 3500 today. Many are asking today how this occurred and for more on this we will now turn to our chief medical and science expert Jon Morgan.”

Jon Morgan Reporting

“ Many of you asking how seven people who lived on an uninhabited island in 2001 could create a population that numbers exactly 3584 today in the year 2316. Let me explain. One first must understand how population growth occurs. Mathematically population grows exponentially not linearly, meaning a quantity will double in regular intervals of time based on some exponential value. The doubling time of the population can be calculated by dividing seventy by the percentage growth rate of the population per year. Taking the average world growth rate of 2% the doubling time of this population is thirty-five years (70/2 = 35). Since the population began as 7 in 200, it grew to around 3584 in this year, 2316, because of the exponential nature of population growth. Here is a chart showing hypothesized progressive growth of the population over the last 315 years.

2001	7
2036	14
2071	28
2106	56
2141	112
2176	224
2211	448
2246	896
2281	1792
2316	3584

This is how a population of 7 living in 2001 grew to over 3500 in this year, 2316. With a 2% growth rate and a 35-year doubling time, it took only 315 years for these few to multiply and totally inhabit this isolated South Pacific Island. Jon Morgan reporting for CBS News.”